Harvard Calls It: Housing Market Slowdown Will Hurt Renovation Boom

The Trump bump has faded, and the real estate market is expected to soften into 2019.

The annual growth in national home improvement and repair spending by Americans is expected to slow in 2019, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released Thursday by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

The LIRA project seems to be ringing the proverbial bell on the US real estate market, indicating year-over-year increases in residential remodeling expenditures will peak at 7.7% this year and then start a downward trajectory through the second half 2019.

Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Centers for Housing Studies, explained that remodeling activity remains above trend, but due to rising interest rates and waning existing home sales, the renovation boom could be constructing a top.

"Rising mortgage interest rates and flat home sales activity around much of the country are expected to pinch otherwise strong growth in homeowner remodeling spending moving forward," said Herbert. "Low for-sale inventories are presenting a headwind because home sales tend to spur investments in remodeling and repair both before a sale and in the years following."

Last month, Bank of America warned existing home sales have peaked, reflecting declining affordability, greater price reductions, and deteriorating housing sentiment.

Chief economist Michelle Meyer, said that "the housing market is no longer a tailwind for the economy but rather a headwind."

BofA economist, John Lovallo became even more bearish on US real estate last week. He downgraded homebuilder stocks Toll Brothers, PulteGroup, and NVR and lowered his homebuilding estimates for 2018 and 2019.

"This morning BofA Merrill Lynch's US economic team lowered its 2018-2019 housing starts and new home sales forecasts and thus we slightly temper our macro housing assumptions," Lovallo said in a note Thur.

Analysts at Credit Suisse also downgraded homebuilding stocks, along with Home Depot and Lowe's, due to higher interest rates hurting housing demand.

Homebuilders have been under pressure in Oct. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF is down more than -23% YTD. This collapse in price coincides with a surge in interest rates. The 10-year note yield hit its highest level since 2011 earlier this month, and if 3.21 continues to violate, then yields risk higher highs.

Reuters News - Homebuilders down for three days in a row

  • Shares of U.S. homebuilders continued their fall on the third consecutive day after BAML downgrades weak housing data earlier this week

  • D.R. Horton, KB Home, PulteGroup, M/I Homes, Lennar and Toll Brothers fell between 2pct and 3.2 pct

  • PHLX housing index .HGX down 1 pct

  • Analyst expect rising interest rates to temper some demand and affect housing affordability in U.S., weighing on earnings of homebuilders

  • BofA Merrill Lynch said Thur. U.S. housing recovery will be driven by entry-level and first-time buyers

  • Weak housing data Wed. showed homebuilding dropped more-than-expected in Sept., while building permits fell to a near 1.5 yr low

  • Separately, on Thur., Toll Brothers founder Robert Toll stepped down as executive chairman; Toll to remain a member of the board

  • PHLX housing index .HGX fell 25.9 pct YTD

With housing peaking - if Harvard, BofA and Credit Suisse are all correct - the real estate market could be in for a whirlwind of trouble next year; something the Trump administration cannot afford into the next presidential election.

(Source: Click Here)

The ISDA has a wonderfully advanced solution with foresight to prepare your wealth portfolio for this clearly observable global market shift!


As part of its CPO Silver Exchange services, the ISDA offers IVA Holders access to proprietary CPO Silver Syndicated CoVestment options. CPOs are a new syndication paradigm of hybrid Business & Commercial Real Estate structured CoVestment opportunities. iCovestors must be qualified to apply for these Cash Flow Vehicle opportunities.

The ISDA has set a new standard for syndication schemes that literally break the mold of investment trusts, and how they can be structured today..."Toll-Free" and with fewer restrictions!

In re-defining progress with an emphasis on asset pools bearing real value via lawfully structured Silver Syndications, the ISDA is able to bring substantial capital enhancement to the intrinsic value of your generational wealth portfolio. By doing this, we significantly mitigate your capital exposure at risk, while simultaneously creating liquidity for application toward turn-key Cash Flow Vehicles.

This allows the ISDA to assemble Cooperative Procurement Opportunities with high-yield sustainable royalties lawfully remitted to non-accredited individuals who are seeking passive cash flow strategies that in the past have only been available largess to the ultra-wealthy and large companies.

Furthermore, we are able to secure the value of your financial portfolio against liabilities like: Currency Devaluation, Global Economic Instability, Bearish Market Volatility, Government Taxation, Physical Asset Confiscation, Civil Asset Forfeiture, Unforeseeable Legal Claims, and other unwarranted legal responsibilities that put your asset base at risk.



#RealEstate #Economics #Money

Featured Posts
Recent Posts
Search By Tags
No tags yet.
Follow Us
  • Facebook Basic Square
  • Twitter Basic Square
  • Google+ Basic Square

S.D.G. | © 2017 by International Silver Dollar Association ~  www.ISDASilver.org

All Rights Reserved.  All Wrongs Reversed.




Back to Top

ICFMS Logo Vertical_edited.png

IMPORTANT MESSAGE: ISDASilver.org is a website owned and operated by the International Silver Dollar Association an Ecclesiastical State Integrated Auxiliary Trust operating by rule of necessity as an Unincorporated Association (hereinafter, “ISDA”).  We are a Faith Based Organization qualified under Title 26 U.S. Code § 508c(1)a Non-Assumptive 28 U.S. Code § 1746 (1).  By accessing the website and any pages thereof, you agree to  the binding terms of use of all ISDA Policies & Agreements, as each may be amended from time to time.  ISDA is not a registered broker, dealer, investment adviser, investment manager or registered funding portal.  Any and all private offerings on this site are available without contravention of Rule 506(b) of Regulation D, as “safe harbor” under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act, and pursuant to the iCovestor Relationship & Royalty Sharing Covenant made in acquiescence at the time of any like kind exchange for any goods, services, and/or subscription made in the medium and measurement of silver in the form of U.S. Treasury Minted American Silver Eagle Coined money (Measured Digitally and/or Physically exchanged thereof as an Intentional Community Opportunity (-ies), a.k.a. “ICO” or "ICOs").

The information contained on this site is provided for informational purposes as a service to the public as part of the mission of the ISDA and does not constitute legal or tax advice.  Legal Information is not the same as Legal Advice.  Some of the information on this site and corresponding emails provide information about law designed to help users safely cope with their own Faith Based Organization needs.   The application of law varies depending on many circumstances. The laws of every state are in constant change, and although we go to great lengths to make sure our information is accurate and useful, we recommend you consult a lawyer if you want professional assurance that this educational information, and your interpretation of it, is appropriate to your particular situation.


ISDA Website Entry & Use Agreement & Public Notice: CLICK HERE